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There has been a slight sign of rebound in the local customer confidence in the short-term and medium-term future, according to the third quarter consumer confidence survey in 2010 released today by the Bauhinia Foundation Research Centre (BFRC).
BFRC commissioned the Public Governance Programme of Lingnan University to interview over 1,000 respondents in a telephone survey between 6 and 12 September 2010.
The Bauhinia Hong Kong Consumer Confidence Index (BHKCCI) - an index of consumer confidence over economic expectations and behaviours in the next three months – rose from 111.0 in June to 117.1 in September this year.
Meanwhile, consumer expectations of economic conditions over the next 12 months have also improved, as reflected in the rise of the Bauhinia Hong Kong Consumer Expectations Index (BHKCEI) from 91.4 in the previous survey (June 2010) to 94.6 in this survey (September 2010). BHKCCI and BHKCEI are set to be 100 in the base period (June 2009).
BFRC Chairman, Mr Anthony Wu, said, “We believe a more significant improvement of BHKCCI may be attributed to favourable news such as the good performance of the Mainland and local economies (GDP growth rates being 11.1% and 6.5% respectively) and the slight improvement of our employment situation during the period. However, it seems that the rather unsatisfactory performance of the economies in the United States, the European Union and Japan has had an impact on consumer expectations for the next 12 months, which have only improved slightly.”
“It is also noteworthy that the expectations of property purchases by respondents’ families and respondents’ expenses on non-recurrent large purchases for the next three months have been worsened when compared with the previous survey,” he added.
Detailed findings of the survey are as follows:
• On Hong Kong’s overall economic conditions, respondents’ current perceptions and their expectations for the next three months have improved very significantly, and their expectations for the next 12 months have also improved.
• Respondents’ current perceptions of Hong Kong’s employment situations have improved and their expectations for the next three months have improved very significantly; their expectations for the next 12 months have remained unchanged.
• Respondents’ current perceptions of household incomes and their expectations for the next three months have improved slightly. However, their expectations for the next 12 months have stayed unchanged. The employment situations of respondents’ family members have stayed unchanged over the past three months. Their expectations for the next three months have improved slightly.
• Over the past three months, property purchases by respondents’ families have improved very significantly, but their expectations for the next three months have worsened.
• Respondents’ expenses on daily necessities over the past three months and their expectations for the next three months have improved.
• Respondents’ spending on non-recurrent large purchases over the past three months has improved very significantly, while their expectations for the next three months have worsened significantly.
• Over the past three months, respondents’ investment in financial products has improved very significantly and their expectations for the next three months have improved.
This two-part consumer confidence survey was the sixth quarterly survey commissioned by the BFRC since its launch in June 2009. Questions in the first part of the survey are related to respondents’ perception of Hong Kong’s overall economic conditions, Hong Kong’s unemployment situations and respondents’ household incomes in three timeframes (i.e. the current situation, the next three months and the next 12 months). Questions in the second part are related to respondents’ various economic and consumption behaviours for the past three months and the next three months.