An Analysis of the Impact of the One Way Permit Scheme on Hong Kong's Demographic Structure

A sustainable population structure with high quality workforce is essential for the long-term economic and social development of Hong Kong as a knowledge-based economy and world-class city. With Hong Kong’s fertility rate amongst the lowest in the world, the bulk of our net population growth (about 93%) is made up of Mainland immigrants admitted to Hong Kong under the One Way Permit Scheme.

The aim of this study is to analyse the impact of the One Way Permit Scheme on Hong Kong’s demographic structure, the quality of our workforce and the demand on social services. The study involves reviewing and analysing available data to project the future pattern and impact of new arrivals from the Mainland under the existing Scheme; looking at family reunion schemes overseas; building a model to examine the impact of possible changes in the One Way Permit Scheme on the pool of arrivals under different scenarios; proposing improvements to the Scheme; and conducting a societal cost-benefit analysis of any changes proposed to the Scheme including the economic, financial and social implications of these changes.

The Social Sciences Research Centre of the University of Hong Kong has been commissioned to carry out the study, with Professor John Bacon-Shone as the team leader. Commencing August 2006, the study is expected to take about nine months to complete.

The Convenor of the Study Group for this project is Mr Peter Lai.

* The following are some relevant statistics:

Total Population Projection • The population is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 0.7% to 8.38 million in 2033.     Fertility • As compared with the selected economies, Hong Kong has the lowest fertility rate since 1983 and the trend is expected to remain in future. The fertility rate in 2005 was 973.     Mortality • As compared with the selected economies, persons in Hong Kong have the longest and second longest expectation of life at birth for males and females respectively. • It is projected that the expectation of life at birth of persons in Hong Kong would continue to increase to 82.5 and 88.0 for males and females respectively in 2033.     Net Movement • Arrival of One-way Permit Holders from the Mainland is one of the main sources of population growth. In 2005, a total of 55, 106 persons arrived Hong Kong through the One-way Permit.     Aging Population • The percentages of older persons (persons of age 65 or above) in the Hong Kong population has continued to increase since 1961. It is projected that among four Hong Kong people there will be one person who is aged 65 or above in 2033. • The overall dependency ratio will start to rise in 2012 and then increase to 598 in 2033 due to the significant increase in the elderly dependency ratio.     Labour Force Projection • The overall labour force participation rate is projected to decline steadily, from 61% in 2005 to 52% in 2023.

Source: Information Note on The Demographic Characteristics and Trends of Hong Kong (Paper Ref: CSD/SC/W/1/2006 for the Workshop of the Committee on Social Development and Quality of Life of the Commission on Strategic Development held on 28 March 2006)

Population Pyramid

Source: Census & Statistics Department, HKSAR Government, “Population Projections 2004 – 2033”, June 2004

Source: Census & Statistics Department